In the space of a few days, the mood in Russia has changed.
Ukraine has made a superbly effective surprise move and caught the Russians totally unprepared.
While conducting a deliberate counteroffensive in the south, in the Kherson Oblast, Kyiv’s forces have suddenly overrun the front in the north-east of the country, where the Russians had been lulled into a state of complacency. The Ukrainian military’s overall strategy is nothing but textbook “Blitzkrieg.”
Thousands of Russian soldiers have been killed, thousands more have surrendered, and the amount of weaponry the Ukrainians have captured is staggering. Precious stores of arms and ammunition are now being put to good use by the Ukrainians. This—and the western supplies of military vehicles, guns and ammunition still flowing in—is effectively feeding the Ukrainian war machine on its way to driving back the Russians all the way to the Federation’s western borders.
What next?
With the Kharkiv Oblast and the Donbass free of invaders, Ukraine will be able to devote its full attention to Crimea.
A quick dash from the Donbass towards the south-west coupled with pressure from the Kherson area can compromise the survival of a large Russian force occupying the Kherson Oblast and the Azov Sea coast. If they haven’t fled already, they’ll retreat into Russia in the direction of Rostov—or try their luck fleeing into Crimea.
The Crimean Peninsula, once Kherson is liberated, will turn into a gigantic mousetrap. The Ukrainians have the resources to seal it shut by blowing up the Kerch bridge (the only remaining way out to Russia) and then pick off the Russians like fish in a barrel. There’ll be thousands of “Z” zombies waving white flags in surrender and many more pushing up the sunflowers next year.
This never-in-a-million-years scenario has now become utterly possible. Russian propagandists, true scum of the earth, have suddenly changed their tone. Only the chronic imbeciles, like Putin’s aide Medvedev and foreign minister Lavrov, still utter loud threats that no-one believes anymore.
The TV-show pundits have sensed that a pivotal moment has been reached and are no longer touting imaginary victories on the battlefield. They’re beginning to take more conciliatory positions, while still careful not to slip into defeatism and, inevitably, a holding cell.
A powerful voice of dissent who doesn’t pull any punches is Russian political blogger Maxim Katz (photo). His You Tube channel has 1.4-million subscribers and today features a 17-minute video that sums up the current state of affairs as no-one else has done. The English subtitles are excellent, and I recommend this modest investment of your own time.
We live in a historic moment, after all.